Wilmington, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

117
FXUS62 KILM 250802
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
402 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The stalled front in the area will lift north today, bringing a
downturn in rain coverage this afternoon. A cold front
approaches Saturday with an increase in showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will build in behind the front Sunday
into early next week with dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a weak front over SC with sfc high
pressure well off to the NE. Areas of fog will continue along and
north of the front this morning due to calm winds and near zero
dewpoint depressions. Southerly winds return daytime today with a
weak seabreeze, but lack of upr-level support will keep shower and
thunderstorm coverage no higher than isolated to widely scattered,
with outflow boundaries helping to promote further development.
Coverage diminishes this evening with the loss of daytime heating,
however maintained low PoPs overnight as a mid-level shortwave
trough approaches from the west. Temps today will be slightly warmer
than yesterday, with highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s, and lows
tonight in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be approaching from the west through Saturday.
Saturday afternoon a shortwave will move through aloft with
increased moisture advection but not much in the way of shear to
support storm organization. This will likely yield
showers/thunderstorms but with little threat of severe weather. The
front will be well behind this feature, moving through Sunday
morning with dry air building in from the north as high pressure
over the Midwest starts to ridge in. This will build overhead Sunday
night with calm winds and mostly clear skies likely yielding good
radiational cooling. For now, the forecast has our traditionally
colder spots in the mid 40s, but near 40 may be possible if ideal
conditions develop aka less cloud cover. Highs will drop about 10
degrees Saturday to Sunday from the mid 80s to the mid 70s. Lows
will be similar from near 60 to near 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quiet for the rest of the period as high pressure remains in the
area until the end of the period. Dry weather will persist through
midweek as the high slowly makes its way offshore. Once the high
moves past we`ll return to southerly/onshore flow and warming will
begin. Highs will warm well into the 80s with lows breaking back
into the 60s. Rain chances may increase ahead of another frontal
system Thursday, with the warmest conditions expected as highs could
near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low cigs and vsbys already starting to overspread SC as
expected, with pockets of IFR and LIFR likely through daybreak
esp. around KFLO and KCRE. Lower confidence for IFR at the other
terminals, but still at least a moderate confidence for MVFR
there. VFR conditions will gradually develop everywhere between
12-15z and continue through the day with only a low probability
of showers or storms affecting KILM, KLBT, and KFLO during the
afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Low to moderate confidence in MVFR/IFR at
all local airports late tonight into Saturday morning in low
clouds and fog. A cold front approaching Saturday could bring
additional restrictions in showers and thunderstorms. VFR
returns Saturday night through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions continue with sfc high
pressure well offshore and fairly light southerly flow...only up to
10-15 kt this aftn through tonight. Sea state will be dominated by
ESE 9 second swell, with significant seas of 2-3 ft.

Saturday through Tuesday...SW flow will increase to 10-15 kts ahead
of a cold front on Saturday, becoming NE Sunday morning as the front
pushes through. High pressure building overhead will lead to winds
slowly veering back to southerly by Tuesday with speeds ~10 kts.
Seas 2-4 ft will increase with the NE surge behind the front Sunday
to 3-5 ft before returning to 2-3 ft for the rest of the period.
Swells will be SE at 2-3 ft and 7-9 seconds with a strong NE wind
wave on Sunday diminishing by Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/LEW