Wilmington, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

116
FXUS62 KILM 041450
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1050 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonable warmth will persist through Sunday. The next
meaningful chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday
accompanying a cold front. Much cooler and drier air will follow
on Tuesday into midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Previous forecast remains on track. Inland areas will approach
90F this afternoon. Current forecasted highs at ILM and LBT are
within a few degrees of record highs for today. Lowered the rip
current risk to low for all area beaches based on morning
reports from local lifeguards.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will remain in control of area weather through
the forecast period. Despite a partly to mostly cloudy start to
the day today, it will be warm again with highs in the mid to
upper 80s (away from the coast). Lows tonight will fall to the
mid 60s under a partly cloudy sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warm weather continues on Saturday and Sunday. Upper level
ridging and deep southerly flow keep a warm, moist air mass
overhead. Dry air aloft will maintain a dry forecast. Highs each
afternoon will peak in the mid and upper 80s. An afternoon sea
breeze will keep coastal areas several degrees cooler. Morning
stratus or fog will be possible each day, but should quickly
dissipate after sunrise. Humid with overnight lows in the mid
60s. As an approaching cold front and lifting shortwave is
expected to progress slow enough to keep the bulk of shower
activity on Sunday afternoon west of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The surface front will reach the area late Sunday. Moisture
increases ahead of the front and surface lift should produce
showers for inland areas on Sunday evening. As with the previous
forecast, thunder has not been included until late Sunday
night. Height falls ahead of a larger trough will produce
stronger lapse rates on Monday, but limited instability could
reach inland areas by sunrise Monday. In the absence of
instability, deep saturation should produce periods of heavy
rain on Sunday night.

Shower chances push eastward overnight with the slow-moving
front. On Monday, a trailing shortwave will push the cold front
through the remainder of the forecast area and bring additional
forcing. Instability ahead of the front should support a few
scattered thunderstorms, primarily along the coast on Monday
afternoon. With showers ongoing during the morning hours and
moist adiabatic low level lapse rates, mixing will be poor, but
a few areas near the coast could see gusts up to 30-40 mph
during the late morning and afternoon. Severe weather does not
appear likely, but an isolated strong wind gust can`t be ruled
out. The best chance for this would be near the coast.

Drier and cooler air follows for the middle of next week with
temperatures shifting from well above-normal to slightly below
normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows should drop
into the mid 30s Tuesday night. While its a little early to
confidently forecast frost concerns (as evident by the latest
forecast showing slightly warmer temps), agriculture interests
should monitor the upcoming cool air mass. The next
disturbance approaches the area on Thursday with increasing
clouds and the potential for a few showers late Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds have shifted to the SW over the last few hours and low
CIGs have become mostly MVFR. Expect isolated areas of IFR to be
brief with MVFR dominating through mid morning. Expect
widespread VFR by about 17Z with S to SW winds invof 10KT.
Given little change to the overall pattern, we could see a
repeat of low cloud development tonight but confidence in that
is fairly low attm as winds may be a tad less onshore this
evening than they were last evening.

Extended Outlook... Primarily VFR through the period. Early
morning vis/cig restrictions are possible each morning. A cold
front approaching from the west will likely bring additional
restrictions from late Sunday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight... S to SW winds generally in the 10 to 15 KT
range are expected through the period with seas of 3 to 4 FT.

Saturday through Thursday... High pressure will maintain
southerly flow through the weekend. An afternoon sea breeze will
produce gusty winds near the coast, up to 15 knots. Winds
increase Saturday night into Sunday ahead of a cold front. Gusts
up to 25 knots will be possible beginning late Sunday. Seas
build up to 4-6 feet late Sunday into Monday during the frontal
passage. Conditions will begin to improve late Monday afternoon
behind the exiting front. Winds turn northerly on Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the region. Breezy with gusts up to
20-25 knots.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...31/VAO
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...31
MARINE...21/31